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Thursday, April 17, 2014

Will higher education market ultimately price itself to oblivion?

I have had so many debates in my circle whether MOOCs will ultimately replace college education. So far I never believed this is possible. The college environment provides so much more than just the instructor led classroom courses - one cannot discount the learning environment and the real networking with students and teachers that you can only get from physically attending colleges. The job market handsomely rewards the produce from top ranked institutes all over the world. My view on online learning has always been of what pornography is to the real thing - a distant substitute.

I consider the MOOC ecosystem more broadly than just the online courses offered by the reputed universities. I include in this category all the self-styled instructors who put out quality content out there. Today we have an unprecedented opportunity for "self-learning". The breadth of online learning opportunities is huge. And with millions of netizens voting and providing feedback, there is a vibrant mechanism to separate the wheat from the chaff. The rich discussions/debates among 'virtual students' in the forums are not too far off from what one would get in colleges.

In my mind the main complaint against MOOCs (or any online learning) has so far been its inability to provide the signalling effect and verifiability. They do not offer college credits. If one cannot put it in the resume and the market does not value it then how will it ever fly. It is only a tool for enriching oneself and for the universities to attract more international students to their campuses. Even then, I am a serial MOOC-er myself who wastes time in collecting these worthless papers.

Of late, my views are changing. I suspect that there is a tipping point approaching. The price of college education is going through the roof. Universities are run more like corporates today. Overall labor market has become too dynamic and unpredictable that it cannot guarantee the kind of jobs which can recoup the costs. Bloomberg is reporting a 'death spiral' of small colleges already. Future society is surely going to carefully measure returns on investment if this trend continues.

I have started to believe this is just the beginning. In another decade or so it would not be uncommon to have self-taught individuals trained by self-styled teachers. The teachers would be the ones who give up navigating the corporate style universities and choose to offer their knowledge free or dirt cheap over digital platforms (accepting Bitcoins!). In the job market there would be wide acceptance of 'real' skills however acquired without looking at institutional pedigree. The whole ecosystem will change. Our next generation will think us as fools why we went to such expensive colleges when there were so much free stuff out there. We will tell them how great a time we had in college campuses.

Today's generation has not seen so many things - would not be surprised if after a couple of decades the next generation blinks when they hear about college, higher education and all of that.....